Superball Keno Jackpot

Posted onby admin
pelotari

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Believe it or not, our figures actually agree.
The difference is in how the returns were expressed.
My figure, a return of 89.8298% with no jackpot, is relative to the initial bet.
CM's figure, a return of 91.5941% with no jackpot, is relative to the average bet (sometimes 1, sometimes 2, but overall about 1.21 times the initial bet)
So it's all about how you want to look at it - 89.83% return of the initial bet or 91.59% return of the average bet.
Personally, I would say that the house edge is 10.17% but the long-term return is 91.59%.
If you throw in the jackpot limitation, then the return of the initial bet is 86.944% and of the average bet is 89.209%.


Great, thanks. Any idea about the difference on where the progressive needs to be to make this game +EV?
CM has it at $20,800 and yours is $63,180...?
CrystalMath

Great, thanks. Any idea about the difference on where the progressive needs to be to make this game +EV?
CM has it at $20,800 and yours is $63,180...?


JB was right.
I am now calculating a break even jackpot of $63,180.
My assumptions are:
If you don't raise and don't hit the power ball, you win $5000.Keno
If you don't raise and hit the power ball, you win $20000.

Superball Keno Jackpot Lottery


If you raise, you will win $8100 regardless of the power ball.
I heart Crystal Math.
beachbumbabs
Administrator

JB was right.
I am now calculating a break even jackpot of $63,180.
My assumptions are:
If you don't raise and don't hit the power ball, you win $5000.
If you don't raise and hit the power ball, you win $20000.
If you raise, you will win $8100 regardless of the power ball.


Wow. That would be a total rip, to jackpot for less than best odds pay. Seems like it should be additive, where you would win both the progressive and the 500x amount of your total bet, but can only win the progressive if you raise.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
pelotari

Wow. That would be a total rip, to jackpot for less than best odds pay. Seems like it should be additive, where you would win both the progressive and the 500x amount of your total bet, but can only win the progressive if you raise.


Yeah, it seems like if a $20 bet amount (between initial bet/raise) is what is required to be 'progressive eligible'.....then the absolute minimum the progressive should start at is $10,000. That would be 500x the bet amount, and 500x is the payout for 7 of 7 on an initial bet at a lower amount. So what's the deal with an $8100 progressive??!!
WinningAnd.....since the progressive is NOT paid at 4x if your 7 of 7 win happens to include the Superball.....but a non-progressive 7 of 7 win with Superball WOULD, then you have this scenario:
(Let's make the progressive an even $8000 for illustration purposes)Jackpot
Player 1 does initial bets of $10, so that on a raise their total bet is $20 and they are progressive eligible. They get 7 of 7 on a raised bet play and they hit the Superball too. What do they win? The progressive, $8000. The fact that they had the Superball means nothing. And on a 7 of 7 win with a raised bet but without the Superball they still win....the progressive....$8000.
Player 2 does initial bets of $8, so on a raise their total bet is $16. Since this is less than $20, they are NOT progressive eligible. So any 7 of 7 win is paid at 500x....which is what the paytable shows. That means if they get 7 of 7 on a raised bet play they still win AT LEAST $8000. Because if they didn't have the Superball they would be paid 500x their $16 bet. So they still got $8000. But of course if THEIR win was 7 of 7 WITH the Superball then they get paid $32,000. It's their $16 bet at 500x (for 7 of 7) and then another 4x for the Superball. Since their win keeps them on the regular paytable and NOT the progressive, that Superball matters....to the tune of an additional $24,000!
So who's the sucker here??!! Well, both....for playing a game with a 10% house edge. But between these two.....you definitely want to be player 2 in this example IF you are going to play the game at an $8000 progressive level.

Superball Keno Jackpot Poker


And....if you take the Superball feature out of it.....consider a Player 3 who makes $9 initial bets. With a raise that is $18....still not progressive eligible. But if they have a raised play that results in 7 of 7...even without the Superball....they win $18 x500 for $9000. More than the progressive of $8000. More than the progressive eligible Player 1....who is betting more....would win for same result.
How to play superball keno

Superball Keno Jackpot Game

I was basically playing it as Player 1, and after hitting that $2000 handpay and getting a pic and then looking at that paytable a little more closely (at home on the pic), I started thinking.....wait a second here. Something doesn't seem right. And that's when I found this forum and posted. The odds experts have been most helpful.
But this game should ALWAYS reset their progressive to $10,000 AT A MINIMUM. Below that does seem to be a ripoff as compared to regular paytable.

Superball Keno Jackpot Winning

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